July 3, 2003

Dean's Surge in Fund-Raising Forces Rivals to Reassess Him

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MICHAEL JANOFSKY

WASHINGTON, July 2 ・Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor making his first bid for national office, raised substantially more money this quarter than all his more established opponents in the Democratic presidential contest, according to figures released today.

The result forced Dr. Dean's rivals to reconsider how to deal with an opponent they had until now viewed as little more than an irritant.

At the same time, Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who had initially been seen as a formidable fund-raiser with strong ties to labor, has apparently come in fifth among Democrats in fund-raising in the second quarter, which ended Monday. It would be the second weak showing in fund-raising by Mr. Gephardt. His aides cautioned today that they were still counting checks.

For all of Dr. Dean's success in this second quarter, and the flurry it set off in Democratic circles, he remains No. 3 among the Democratic presidential candidates in the total raised this year, according to campaign officials, and many Democratic leaders said they continued to view his candidacy as something of a long shot.

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts raised about $6 million this quarter, or $13 million this year, his campaign said, while Senator John Edwards of North Carolina raised about $5 million this quarter, for a total of about $12.4 million for the year, his aides said. Dr. Dean has raised $10.1 million since the start of the year, according to his campaign manager, Joe Trippi.

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut raised $5 million this quarter, or a total of $8 million this year, his spokesman said today.

Mr. Gephardt, who was the House minority leader before stepping down to run for president, raised around $4.5 million, for a total of about $8 million, his advisers said.

The second-quarter fund-raising reports offered an early measure of the strength of the Democratic field seven months before the first primary.

While the differences might amount to only a few hundred thousand dollars, the candidates' success at drawing contributions helps build early impressions about their viability among Democratic delegates, elected officials, union leaders and, inevitably, journalists, whose reports on fund-raising help create those critical impressions.

And the candidates' success at raising money influences donors looking to make future contributions, who are not apt to write checks to losing candidates.

Dr. Dean's opponents, though clearly impressed by his showing, said it was hardly clear that it would translate into long-term support.

Jim Jordan, Mr. Kerry's campaign manager said, "Look, he's tapped into an angry, motivated constituency who, for one quarter at least, pulled out their checkbooks." Mr. Jordan added: "The question about Dean has never been about the intensity of his support. It's about the breadth of it."

Dr. Dean's campaign announced on Sunday that he was likely to raise $6.5 million in the quarter, a finding that many Democrats said had catapulted him into the top tier of candidates.

In fact, his aides said today, contributions kept pouring in through midnight on Monday, many of them over the Internet, and Dr. Dean ended up raising $7.5 million from 59,000 contributors, a figure an aide to one opponent described as staggering.

The official report to the Federal Elections Commission is not due until July 15, and it is not unheard of to find disparities between what the candidates claim in the first days after the fund-raising deadline, when many are trying to drum up favorable news accounts of strong fund-raising efforts, and what they actually attest to in their filing with the government.

The contest among the Democrats was arguably eclipsed by President Bush, who raised $34.2 million in the second quarter of this year, more than all his Democratic opponents combined. What is more, Mr. Bush raised most of it, $21.7 million, in 14 fund-raisers attended by the president, his wife, and Vice President Dick Cheney from June 17-30. A mailing drew $4.5 million.

Senator Bob Graham of Florida, another Democrat who has been closely watched by party officials, has not finished tallying his contributions, an aide said today, though Democrats close to the campaign said he would probably trail far behind the pack, with under $3 million.

The other member of Congress running for president, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, was not ready to release his figures, his aides said, though he was expected to raise slightly more than $1 million.

An eighth candidate, the Rev. Al Sharpton, asked how much money he had raised this quarter, said tonight: "I have no idea. We're going to report on the 15th."

Former Senator Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois reported raising $150,000 in the second quarter, for a total of $225,000 this year.

Still, Dr. Dean was drawing attention as his opponents began considering how to deal with a novelty in American politics: a maverick candidate who is a long shot but who is suddenly sitting atop a campaign bank account as large as nearly any of his rivals.

As a number of Democrats noted today, there is little evidence that financial contributions are the equivalent of popular support. Senator Edwards led the Democrats in raising money last time, and polls have shown him trailing his opponents in crucial early-voting states.

Dr. Dean's showing was unexpected ・even by some supporters ・and reflects some of the different approaches he has brought to campaigning, starting with his clearly effective reliance on the Internet to raise money. His rivals seemed uncertain just what to make of this turn of events.

A number of Democrats argued that well financed or not he might prove to be vulnerable, given his relatively scant record in national politics and some positions that could prove problematic in various primaries ・including his strong opposition to the war in Iraq and strong support for domestic partnerships for gay couples and his opposition to many forms of gun control.

Several Democrats said today that with his financial success, Dr. Dean was about to enter a new phase in the campaign, where he would be subject to tougher scrutiny.

In several campaigns today, there was debate about whether ・or, in some cases, when ・to begin attacking Dr. Dean directly, and how to do it without alienating the new voters he has drawn into the political process.

Aides to several candidates said today that they would hold back, hoping Mr. Kerry would take the lead because he could be the most threatened by Dr. Dean, since the two men come from neighboring states.

Mr. Jordan, Mr. Kerry's campaign manager, said of Dr. Dean, "Ultimately, the question he has to resolve is has he painted himself into a corner, ideology and stylistically?"

Aides to several candidates said they would welcome a two-way primary fight with Dr. Dean, in the belief that he might prove particularly vulnerable to attacks.

"I think most Democrats would prefer not to have Howard Dean as the nominee," Mr. Gephardt's campaign manager, Steve Murphy, said. "I'll leave it at that."

An aide to Mr. Lieberman said: "Everyone wants a race against Dean. Everyone has looked at the research, and he looks easiest to bring down. He's positioned himself as a liberal, and liberals don't win here."

"What the Democrats want more than anything else in the nominee is someone who can beat Bush ・Democrats just want to win," this aide said.

Mr. Trippi, Dr. Dean's campaign manager, told of the remarks, said he was not worried, saying Dr. Dean had built up a strong base of passionate support among Democrats who had not been involved in this kind of primary campaign before.

"Bring it on," he said. "They don't understand this kind of campaign."

"Part of the reason why some people have been kept off balance by us is because they think they're like us, and they're not," he said. "We're different."

Mr. Gephardt's aides said tonight that they were not concerned about the candidate's fund-raising so far, and that they viewed Mr. Gephardt as in an increasingly strong position, given the threat Dr. Dean was posing to Mr. Edwards.

"We have a plan," said Steve Elmendorf, an adviser to Mr. Gephardt. "We're on plan. We raised more money this quarter than last quarter. We are moving forward. Other candidates are moving backwards."

In addition to the money Mr. Gephardt has raised, he has transferred into his coffers $2.4 million from his Congressional fund-raising committee. Similarly, Mr. Kerry transferred in $3 million from his Senate campaign committee.


Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company




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